Mumbai’s power shift: Mahayuti topples Thackerays, BJP emerges kingmaker in BMC polls

The result ensures Mumbai will get a BJP–Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) mayor after a long gap, marking a decisive shift in the city’s political power structure.

Under Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ leadership, the BJP has delivered its strongest-ever performance in the BMC, winning or leading in 88 of the 227 wards so far, surpassing its previous high of 82 seats in 2017.

Its ally, the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), is ahead in 28 wards, taking the Mahayuti comfortably past the majority mark of 114.

Thackeray bastion breached

For Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), the BMC polls were about defending its last remaining fortress. 

The undivided Shiv Sena had won 84 seats in 2017, but this time UBT is leading in around 72–75 wards, indicating a notable decline.

Despite losing its party symbol and a significant section of its cadre to Eknath Shinde, the Thackeray-led faction remains the second-largest force after the BJP. 

The results underscore that while the Thackeray brand still commands loyalty, it is no longer the dominant force in Mumbai’s civic politics.

Failed cousins’ reunion

The much-publicised reunion between estranged cousins Uddhav and Raj Thackeray, after two decades, was aimed at consolidating the Marathi vote and reclaiming Bal Thackeray’s legacy. 

However, the alliance failed to deliver expected electoral dividends.

Thackerays' reunion fails to stop Mahayuti's BMC sweep. Photo: Facebook/@RajThackeray

Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is leading in only 10 wards. While Shiv Sena (UBT) contested 160 seats with a strike rate of over 45 percent, MNS contested 53 wards and managed a success rate of just 19 percent.

Analysts suggest that Raj Thackeray’s aggressive stance on non-Marathi communities and his party’s past acts of street vigilantism may have alienated voters in cosmopolitan wards, costing Uddhav Thackeray crucial seats. 

The Congress, which won 11 wards, appears to have fared better among non-Marathi voters.

BJP’s expanding footprint

The BJP’s near single-party dominance underscores its growing organisational strength in Mumbai. 

Maharashtra minister Nitesh Rane attributed the alliance’s performance to a mandate for its Hindutva pitch, stating that those who “speak for Hindu interests” would rule Maharashtra.

Eknath Shinde praised the outcome as a verdict for “development” and against “corruption,” calling it a vote of confidence in the Mahayuti government’s performance over the past three-and-a-half years. 

When asked about the mayoral face, Shinde said the post would go to someone from the alliance, avoiding specifics.

Raj Thackeray’s political crossroads

The BMC setback has deepened the crisis for Raj Thackeray. 

His party’s vote share had already slumped to 1.55 percent in the 2024 Assembly elections, where the MNS failed to win a single seat. 

The poor BMC showing has revived concerns over possible derecognition as a state party, which would deprive it of an official symbol.

With no control over the civic body, the MNS risks losing its cadre base, as party workers look for political survival within the BJP or Shinde’s Shiv Sena. 

Raj Thackeray’s son Amit’s third-place finish in Mahim during the 2024 Assembly polls has further clouded succession plans.

Shrinking Thackeray influence

The election results indicate that “Thackeray nostalgia” alone is no longer enough to counter the BJP’s organisational dominance. 

The failure to consolidate the Marathi vote despite identity-driven campaigns highlights a changing voter preference in Mumbai.

As Maharashtra’s politics increasingly polarise into a Mahayuti versus Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) contest, both Uddhav and Raj Thackeray face diminishing space. 

While UBT remains relevant, the MNS risks marginalisation unless it recalibrates its political strategy.

A new political order in Mumbai

The BMC verdict marks a significant restructuring of Mumbai’s political landscape. 

The fall of the Thackerays from their longest-held power base signals the rise of the BJP as the principal force in urban Maharashtra. 

As the Mahayuti prepares to form the civic administration, Mumbai’s governance is set to reflect this new balance of power.

The results underscore a broader realignment in state politics, where organisational strength and governance narratives have overtaken legacy politics, redefining electoral equations in India’s financial capital.