US Presidential elections 2024: Tight race ahead as Trump leads in 3 new surveys, Harris in 2 others

A series of recent polls shows the candidates neck-and-neck, with Harris maintaining a slight lead in several surveys, while others give Trump a narrow advantage—though key swing states remain tightly contested.

A CNBC poll released Thursday shows Trump ahead with 48% to Harris' 46% among registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.1%.

Similarly, a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters, published Wednesday, indicates Trump leading 47% to 45%, a reversal from August when Harris held a two-point advantage in the same survey.

Trump also holds a two-point lead nationally among likely voters, at 51% to 49%, in a HarrisX/Forbes poll released Wednesday, which includes those leaning toward a candidate (margin of error 2.5%).

Excluding leaners, Trump’s lead narrows to just one point at 49% to 48%.

On the other hand, multiple polls show Harris in front. A Monmouth University poll conducted from October 17 to 21 shows her leading Trump by 47% to 44% among registered voters who are likely to vote, with 4% opting for another candidate and 5% undecided.

In an Economist/YouGov poll, Harris holds a 49% to 46% advantage, although this marks a slight dip from her previous four-point lead.

Harris is up 50% to 46% in Morning Consult’s latest weekly poll, consistent with the previous week but down slightly from her earlier six-point lead.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released the same day shows her with a three-point lead at 46% to 43%, which narrows to two points within the poll's margin of error.

In a USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted October 14-18, Harris leads by just one point, 45% to 44%, as Trump has closed the gap since August when she led by five points.

Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll released Friday finds Harris ahead by one point, 49% to 48%, down from her earlier leads of two points in September and four points in August.

Since her July 21 candidacy announcement, Harris has overtaken Trump’s earlier advantage over President Joe Biden.

However, her lead has slightly diminished from its peak of 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.

The website’s election forecast suggests Trump has a 51% chance of winning, compared to 49% for Harris.

Nate Silver’s forecast gives Trump a slight edge at 52.8% to 46.9%, noting the race has hovered around a 50/50 probability.

As for polling averages, Harris holds a narrow 0.2-point lead over Trump in RealClearPolitics’ latest data, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her ahead by 1.8 points, and Nate Silver has her up by 1.6 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.